Nemesis
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$904.10
1,391 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $813.69 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.21%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 40.0% | $2,003 3,082 gems | 98.5% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $162 250 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $28.43 43.74 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.25 8.07 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.23 4.97 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| P90 | Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $2.58 3.97 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.72 2.65 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPalm Beach Pete$9041,391 gems$5.258.07 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $904 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 45.0%classified 20.0%restricted 25.0%violet 10.0%best hit $2,003 (2.22x)