Neon Nest
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.07
23.19 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $13.56 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.92%
1,579 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,620 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$15.0723.19 gems$8331,282 gems55.28x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$15.0723.19 gems$8331,282 gems55.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $15.07 | 89.98% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%covert 7.2%rare 5.0%restricted 27.6%Mythical 10.0%Restricted 20.0%blue 30.0%best hit $833 (55.28x)