New Money
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$970.28
1,493 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $873.25 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
130.03%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $2,281 3,509 gems | 78.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,078 1,659 gems | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $1,064 1,637 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 40 | $380 585 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 40 | $344 530 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $296 455 gems | 5.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $207 319 gems | 3.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $140 216 gems | 2.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $139 213 gems | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $970 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%covert knife 2.5%rare 2.5%classified 30.0%Classified 15.0%best hit $2,281 (2.35x)