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Nickel and Dime Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$52.99
81.53 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $47.69 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.03%
979 openings, odds method
Variance
11.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79 openings · below min
7 days
100.52%±25.09719 openings
30 days
103.03%±21.50979 openings
since tracking started
103.03%±21.50979 openings
29.5%105.8%182.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h79105.63%±75.7—odds
7d719100.52%±25.1+0.8σodds
30d979103.03%±21.5+1.2σodds
All979103.03%±21.5+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,017 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 100$1,466 2,255 gems30.7%910.20.88×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$1,016 1,562 gems21.3%1510.21.47×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$406 625 gems8.5%1810.21.77×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50$271 417 gems11.4%2720.31.33×
AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 20$68.17 105 gems7.1%6750.91.32×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20$39.84 61.29 gems4.2%4250.90.83×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$28.81 44.32 gems6.0%98101.70.96×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified15.0%$14.80 22.77 gems4.7%151152.50.99×
FAMAS | Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink30.0%$7.37 11.34 gems4.6%313305.11.03×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink30.0%$2.28 3.5 gems1.4%277305.10.91×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlArmands Miesnieks$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$52.9981.53 gems$1,4662,255 gems27.66x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$52.9981.53 gems$1,0161,562 gems19.16x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$52.9981.53 gems$28.8144.32 gems0.54x
FAMAS | Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$52.9981.53 gems$7.3711.34 gems0.14x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$52.9981.53 gems$14.8022.77 gems0.28x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$52.9981.53 gems$2.283.5 gems0.04x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$52.9981.53 gems$2.283.5 gems0.04x
FAMAS | Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$52.9981.53 gems$7.3711.34 gems0.14x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$52.9981.53 gems$14.8022.77 gems0.28x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$52.9981.53 gems$1,0161,562 gems19.16x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$52.9981.53 gems$14.8022.77 gems0.28x
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$52.9981.53 gems$28.8144.32 gems0.54x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$52.9990.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%Ancient 5.0%classified 25.0%pink 60.0%best hit $1,466 (27.66x)