Night and Day
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$144.61
222 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $130.15 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.76%
195 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 195 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $768 1,181 gems | 29.5% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $377 581 gems | 29.0% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $332 510 gems | 25.5% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 25.0% | $83.20 128 gems | 16.0% | 49 | 48.7 | 1.01× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.0% | 49 | 48.7 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray | 25.0% | $0.08 0.13 gems | 0.0% | 42 | 48.8 | 0.86× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedfenom$145222 gems$83.20128 gems0.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $145 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 5.0%classified 10.0%restricted 10.0%Classified 25.0%#4b69ff 25.0%gray 25.0%best hit $768 (5.31x)