Night Club
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.01
111 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $64.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.22%
491 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 491 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,043 1,604 gems | 48.3% | 14 | 14.7 | 0.95× |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $173 266 gems | 45.4% | 84 | 83.5 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $24.81 38.17 gems | 1.9% | 41 | 24.5 | 1.67× |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $14.37 22.11 gems | 1.1% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| MP9 | Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $6.67 10.26 gems | 1.0% | 44 | 49.1 | 0.90× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $4.79 7.37 gems | 1.1% | 76 | 73.6 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.57 5.49 gems | 1.1% | 91 | 98.2 | 0.93× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $0.22 0.34 gems | 0.1% | 114 | 122.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $72.01 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%restricted 52.0%industrial 5.0%mil spec 10.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $1,043 (14.48x)