Night Vision
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.46
22.24 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $13.01 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.78%
1,616 openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,644 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $498 767 gems | 19.2% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| ★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 200 | $380 585 gems | 14.6% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $218 336 gems | 8.4% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.09× |
| UMP-45 | Day Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · #4B69FF | 1 in 50 | $59.36 91.33 gems | 9.1% | 34 | 32.9 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $54.34 83.6 gems | 12.5% | 41 | 49.3 | 0.83× |
| USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $19.45 29.93 gems | 22.4% | 239 | 246.6 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $6.23 9.58 gems | 4.8% | 162 | 164.4 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $2.93 4.5 gems | 2.2% | 170 | 164.4 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 58.5% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 6.7% | 973 | 961.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.4622.24 gems$54.3483.6 gems3.76x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$14.4622.24 gems$6.239.58 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.4622.24 gems$54.3483.6 gems3.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.46 | 89.97% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%restricted 10.5%#4B69FF 2.0%classified 3.0%mil spec 73.5%pink 10.0%best hit —