Night Walker
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.81
4.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $2.52 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.66%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
51.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 2,000 | $748 1,150 gems | 14.8% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.57× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $398 612 gems | 7.9% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.41× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $140 215 gems | 8.3% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $47.65 73.3 gems | 9.4% | 47 | 63.9 | 0.74× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 133 | $29.30 45.08 gems | 8.7% | 80 | 95.8 | 0.83× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $14.83 22.82 gems | 8.8% | 181 | 191.7 | 0.94× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $6.42 9.88 gems | 17.8% | 864 | 894.4 | 0.97× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $2.65 4.08 gems | 10.5% | 1,295 | 1277.7 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $1.33 2.04 gems | 5.3% | 1,294 | 1277.7 | 1.01× |
| MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 70.0% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 8.5% | 8,977 | 8943.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldparis0743$2.814.32 gems$7481,150 gems266.2x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldDr***yl$2.814.32 gems$7481,150 gems266.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.81 | 89.89% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%covert 0.7%classified 9.3%pink 20.0%violet 70.0%best hit $748 (266.2x)