No Collateral
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$275.39
424 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $247.84 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.56%
1,834 openings, odds method
Variance
34.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,860 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $16.8K 25,889 gems | 33.9% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $13.7K 21,141 gems | 27.7% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $5,414 8,329 gems | 10.9% | 13 | 9.3 | 1.40× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $3,907 6,010 gems | 7.9% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $3,091 4,755 gems | 6.2% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $1,534 2,360 gems | 3.1% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 200 | $987 1,518 gems | 2.0% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $668 1,027 gems | 1.3% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 96.0% | $17.71 27.24 gems | 6.9% | 1,781 | 1785.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryZoid$275424 gems$16.8K25,889 gems61.11x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryZoid$275424 gems$16.8K25,889 gems61.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryKick/HarryJZ$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryMpiXelss$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$275424 gems$17.7127.24 gems0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $275 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 98.5%legendary 1.5%best hit $16.8K (61.11x)