No Russian
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.73
33.43 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $19.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.08%
727 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 795 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 200 | $344 529 gems | 8.8% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 40 | $176 270 gems | 22.5% | 23 | 19.9 | 1.16× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 22.0% | $44.18 67.97 gems | 49.7% | 158 | 174.9 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $18.74 28.83 gems | 9.6% | 100 | 79.5 | 1.26× |
| M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $10.28 15.82 gems | 5.3% | 94 | 79.5 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $3.59 5.52 gems | 1.8% | 72 | 79.5 | 0.91× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $2.93 4.51 gems | 1.5% | 62 | 79.5 | 0.78× |
| M249 | Midnight Palm (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.4% | 117 | 119.2 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec | 20.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.5% | 164 | 159.0 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$21.7333.43 gems$44.1867.97 gems2.03x
StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec$21.7333.43 gems$0.450.7 gems0.02x
M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$21.7333.43 gems$10.2815.82 gems0.47x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecMichael Olise$21.7333.43 gems$3.595.52 gems0.17x
StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec$21.7333.43 gems$0.450.7 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec$21.7333.43 gems$0.450.7 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$21.7333.43 gems$18.7428.83 gems0.86x
StatTrak™ Negev | Prototype (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec$21.7333.43 gems$0.450.7 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMichael Olise$21.7333.43 gems$18.7428.83 gems0.86x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.73 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 25.5%#4b69ff 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 22.0%restricted 10.0%milspec 10.0%industrial 10.0%Mil Spec 20.0%best hit —