No Swag?
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.44
25.29 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.79 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.01%
7,747 openings, odds method
Variance
23.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,876 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $727 1,119 gems | 49.2% | 81 | 78.8 | 1.03× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $278 428 gems | 18.8% | 82 | 78.8 | 1.04× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $185 285 gems | 12.5% | 78 | 78.8 | 0.99× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $135 208 gems | 9.1% | 74 | 78.8 | 0.94× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $79.05 122 gems | 5.3% | 92 | 78.8 | 1.17× |
| MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 95.0% | $0.79 1.21 gems | 5.1% | 7,469 | 7482.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · goldLive kick/vaultycs$16.4425.29 gems$7271,119 gems44.24x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.44 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 2.0%Extraordinary 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%Mythical 95.0%best hit $727 (44.24x)