Noob Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.32
2.03 gems
Advertised RTP
89.64%
EV $1.18 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.18%
9,265 openings, odds method
Variance
14.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,455 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,000 | $140 215 gems | 11.8% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.37× |
| SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $34.47 53.03 gems | 14.6% | 55 | 47.3 | 1.16× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $5.03 7.74 gems | 12.8% | 282 | 283.6 | 0.99× |
| SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $2.59 3.99 gems | 11.0% | 478 | 472.8 | 1.01× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $2.39 3.68 gems | 10.1% | 468 | 472.8 | 0.99× |
| P2000 | Acid Etchedweapon · violet | 11.4% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 10.6% | 1,064 | 1077.9 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $0.85 1.3 gems | 8.9% | 1,193 | 1181.9 | 1.01× |
| M249 | Downtown (Factory New)weapon · violet | 12.5% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 8.7% | 1,178 | 1181.9 | 1.00× |
| MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 25.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 8.8% | 2,365 | 2363.8 | 1.00× |
| P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 2.7% | 2,359 | 2363.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.64%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1.32 | 89.64% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 3.1%classified 18.0%covert 5.0%violet 23.9%Mythical 25.0%Rare 25.0%best hit $140 (105.9x)