Nostalgia
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$164.87
254 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $148.38 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.86%
304 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 304 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert | 1 in 20 | $807 1,242 gems | 27.2% | 21 | 15.2 | 1.38× |
| ★ Karambitknife · covert | 1 in 20 | $717 1,102 gems | 24.1% | 16 | 15.2 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $510 784 gems | 17.2% | 17 | 15.2 | 1.12× |
| ★ Classic Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 20 | $223 343 gems | 7.5% | 24 | 15.2 | 1.58× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $191 294 gems | 6.4% | 12 | 15.2 | 0.79× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $109 167 gems | 3.7% | 17 | 15.2 | 1.12× |
| Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $68.06 105 gems | 2.3% | 19 | 15.2 | 1.25× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $46.46 71.48 gems | 3.1% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $35.77 55.03 gems | 3.6% | 36 | 45.6 | 0.79× |
| M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $24.71 38.02 gems | 2.5% | 42 | 45.6 | 0.92× |
| P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $13.80 21.23 gems | 2.3% | 70 | 76.0 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedThomas the termonuclear bomb$165254 gems$35.7755.03 gems0.22x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $165 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%classified 35.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $807 (4.90x)