Malta
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$69.73
107 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $62.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.10%
1,776 openings, odds method
Variance
24.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,790 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $3,474 5,344 gems | 55.4% | 15 | 17.9 | 0.84× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $319 491 gems | 10.2% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $214 329 gems | 10.2% | 44 | 53.7 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $84.73 130 gems | 18.9% | 247 | 250.6 | 0.99× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $16.13 24.81 gems | 1.3% | 89 | 89.5 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $11.80 18.15 gems | 3.8% | 390 | 358.0 | 1.09× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.0% | $0.52 0.8 gems | 0.2% | 440 | 447.5 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec | 30.0% | $0.20 0.3 gems | 0.1% | 532 | 537.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $69.73 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%sunny 2.0%covert 17.0%mil spec 5.0%pink 20.0%#4b69ff 25.0%milspec 30.0%best hit $3,474 (49.82x)