Nothing But Coal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.85
55.15 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $32.26 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.65%
1,443 openings, odds method
Variance
20.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,459 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,597 2,457 gems | 49.5% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $241 371 gems | 29.9% | 58 | 58.4 | 0.99× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $33.10 50.93 gems | 5.1% | 65 | 73.0 | 0.89× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $25.29 38.91 gems | 2.4% | 43 | 43.8 | 0.98× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $18.72 28.8 gems | 1.7% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× |
| AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 22.0% | $9.48 14.59 gems | 6.5% | 307 | 321.0 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 22.0% | $3.87 5.95 gems | 2.6% | 323 | 321.0 | 1.01× |
| P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 40.0% | $1.83 2.81 gems | 2.3% | 612 | 583.6 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.85 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%industrial 6.0%mil spec 22.0%restricted 22.0%#87c7ff 40.0%best hit $1,597 (44.55x)