Nuclear War
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.50
57.69 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $33.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.47%
361 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $238 367 gems | 35.3% | 17 | 19.2 | 0.88× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $172 265 gems | 25.5% | 23 | 19.2 | 1.19× |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $106 164 gems | 15.8% | 24 | 19.2 | 1.25× |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $45.30 69.69 gems | 6.7% | 24 | 19.2 | 1.25× |
| XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 20 | $27.41 42.17 gems | 4.1% | 26 | 19.2 | 1.35× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $9.63 14.82 gems | 7.1% | 102 | 96.2 | 1.06× |
| MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $6.50 10 gems | 4.8% | 87 | 96.2 | 0.90× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.93 1.43 gems | 0.7% | 82 | 96.3 | 0.85× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$37.5057.69 gems$9.6314.82 gems0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $37.50 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 35.0%classified 5.0%industrial 30.0%other 5.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —