Oblivion
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.99
83.06 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $48.59 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.75%
181 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $369 568 gems | 38.0% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $93.04 143 gems | 28.7% | 23 | 27.1 | 0.85× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $79.79 123 gems | 24.6% | 27 | 27.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $32.64 50.21 gems | 3.4% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.57 10.1 gems | 2.0% | 31 | 27.1 | 1.14× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $5.25 8.07 gems | 1.6% | 24 | 27.1 | 0.88× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $4.79 7.37 gems | 1.5% | 28 | 27.1 | 1.03× |
| P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 15.0% | $0.51 0.78 gems | 0.2% | 29 | 27.2 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.99 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%classified 30.0%Legendary 15.0%Mil Spec 15.0%best hit —