Ocean’s Call

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$24.53
37.74 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $22.07 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.75%
2,991 openings, odds method
Variance
56.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
339 openings · below min
7 days
90.38%±31.872,118 openings
30 days
86.75%±26.822,991 openings
since tracking started
86.75%±26.822,991 openings
34.5%114.8%195.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h339114.70%±79.7—odds
7d2,11890.38%±31.9+0.0σodds
30d2,99186.75%±26.8−0.2σodds
All2,99186.75%±26.8−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,071 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 400$3,163 4,865 gems35.8%57.70.65×
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 400$1,716 2,641 gems19.4%87.71.04×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 400$590 908 gems6.7%57.70.65×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 400$264 406 gems3.0%107.71.30×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$198 304 gems9.0%5130.71.66×
★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$130 200 gems5.9%3530.71.14×
★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$97.02 149 gems8.8%6661.41.07×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical10.0%$15.28 23.51 gems6.9%325307.11.06×
MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted15.0%$5.43 8.36 gems3.7%455460.60.99×
P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec30.0%$0.47 0.73 gems0.6%894921.30.97×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d940.0%$0.10 0.15 gems0.2%1,2171228.40.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.5337.74 gems$3,1634,865 gems128.9x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.5337.74 gems$3,1634,865 gems128.9x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.5337.74 gems$3,1634,865 gems128.9x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.5337.74 gems$3,1634,865 gems128.9x
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$24.5337.74 gems$3,1634,865 gems128.9x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.5337.74 gems$1,7162,641 gems69.97x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.5337.74 gems$1,7162,641 gems69.97x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.5337.74 gems$1,7162,641 gems69.97x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.5337.74 gems$1,7162,641 gems69.97x
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.5337.74 gems$1,7162,641 gems69.97x

Latest dropsnewest first

Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$24.5337.74 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted$24.5337.74 gems$5.438.36 gems0.22x
★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$24.5337.74 gems$97.02149 gems3.95x
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$24.5337.74 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted$24.5337.74 gems$5.438.36 gems0.22x
P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$24.5337.74 gems$0.470.73 gems0.02x
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$24.5337.74 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x
P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$24.5337.74 gems$0.470.73 gems0.02x
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$24.5337.74 gems$0.100.15 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$24.5389.98%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.5%classified 0.5%Mythical 10.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 30.0%#b0c3d9 40.0%best hit $3,163 (128.9x)