Oil
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.89
7.52 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $4.40 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.21%
3,251 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,287 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $12.96 19.94 gems | 29.5% | 313 | 328.7 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.11 14.01 gems | 20.7% | 336 | 328.7 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $8.12 12.49 gems | 18.5% | 330 | 328.7 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $6.60 10.15 gems | 15.0% | 310 | 328.7 | 0.94× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.91 9.09 gems | 13.4% | 353 | 328.7 | 1.07× |
| Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 50.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 2.9% | 1,645 | 1643.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.89 | 89.93% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#4b69ff 10.0%restricted 10.0%industrial 10.0%mil spec 10.0%classified 10.0%Consumer Grade 50.0%best hit —