Oil Field
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$687.45
1,058 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $618.70 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.21%
150 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $2,951 4,540 gems | 95.4% | 32 | 30.0 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $93.54 144 gems | 3.0% | 24 | 30.0 | 0.80× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $61.13 94.04 gems | 1.5% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $3.62 5.57 gems | 0.1% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.0% | 27 | 22.5 | 1.20× |
| MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $0.07 0.1 gems | 0.0% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $687 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%mil spec 20.0%industrial 15.0%Rare 15.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%best hit $2,951 (4.29x)