Oil Money
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,303.81
2,006 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,173.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.45%
150 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 25 | $17.2K 26,400 gems | 58.5% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $3,078 4,735 gems | 15.7% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $2,380 3,661 gems | 16.2% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $1,098 1,689 gems | 7.5% | 10 | 12.0 | 0.83× |
| AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 14.0% | $170 262 gems | 2.0% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.0% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× |
| Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.0% | 26 | 30.0 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | Dirty Moneysticker · High Grade | 20.0% | $0.29 0.44 gems | 0.0% | 38 | 30.0 | 1.27× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$1,3042,006 gems$17.2K26,400 gems13.16x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,304 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 4.0%covert 22.0%#d32ee6 14.0%restricted 20.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%High Grade 20.0%best hit $17.2K (13.16x)