Price
$4.13
6.35 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $3.71 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.76%
12.1K openings, odds method
Variance
13.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $185 285 gems | 24.9% | 58 | 62.8 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 133 | $76.67 118 gems | 15.5% | 94 | 94.2 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 133 | $51.94 79.91 gems | 10.5% | 86 | 94.2 | 0.91× |
| AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $16.57 25.49 gems | 13.4% | 394 | 376.7 | 1.05× |
| SG 553 | Traveler (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $9.24 14.21 gems | 12.4% | 639 | 627.9 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Factory New)weapon · Industrial | 20.0% | $3.17 4.87 gems | 17.1% | 2,539 | 2511.6 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.80 1.23 gems | 4.3% | 2,485 | 2511.6 | 0.99× |
| P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 1.6% | 3,204 | 3139.5 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.3% | 3,059 | 3139.6 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialpoisseestist$4.136.35 gems$0.040.06 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.13 | 89.93% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%classified 0.8%violet 0.8%mil spec 3.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%Industrial 20.0%blue 20.0%restricted 25.0%industrial 25.0%best hit —