One in Ten
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.55
80.85 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $47.29 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.93%
643 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 655 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $737 1,134 gems | 31.2% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $482 741 gems | 20.4% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $262 403 gems | 11.1% | 7 | 13.1 | 0.53× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $135 208 gems | 5.7% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $84.77 130 gems | 3.6% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $48.30 74.31 gems | 10.2% | 63 | 65.5 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6 | 20.0% | $24.54 37.76 gems | 10.4% | 120 | 131.0 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 20.0% | $10.60 16.3 gems | 4.5% | 119 | 131.0 | 0.91× |
| AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 20.0% | $4.32 6.65 gems | 1.8% | 143 | 131.0 | 1.09× |
| AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $2.80 4.3 gems | 1.2% | 153 | 131.0 | 1.17× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertArmands Miesnieks$52.5580.85 gems$7371,134 gems14.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6FarelEnergy skinbet.gg$52.5580.85 gems$24.5437.76 gems0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $52.55 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%sunny 2.0%Covert 2.0%classified 10.0%#d32ce6 20.0%Legendary 20.0%Classified 20.0%violet 20.0%best hit $737 (14.03x)