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One

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$39.57
60.88 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $35.61 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.40%
3,953 openings, odds method
Variance
27.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
267 openings · below min
7 days
84.06%±17.233,595 openings
30 days
87.40%±16.433,953 openings
since tracking started
87.40%±16.433,953 openings
-0.5%63.3%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h26763.01%±63.2—odds
7d3,59584.06%±17.2−0.7σodds
30d3,95387.40%±16.4−0.3σodds
All3,95387.40%±16.4−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,019 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$6,291 9,679 gems8.8%32.01.49×
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$3,838 5,904 gems5.4%02.00.00×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$1,613 2,482 gems4.5%34.00.75×
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$1,202 1,849 gems10.1%912.10.75×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 200$959 1,476 gems13.5%1920.10.95×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$627 964 gems8.8%2320.11.14×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$577 888 gems8.1%2220.11.09×
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 200$380 584 gems5.3%1420.10.70×
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$295 455 gems4.1%2820.11.39×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 100$228 350 gems6.4%4240.21.05×
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$163 250 gems4.6%4840.21.19×
AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$150 232 gems4.2%4440.21.09×
USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 100$135 208 gems3.8%3740.20.92×
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$55.25 85 gems1.6%4240.21.05×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50$52.13 80.2 gems2.9%6380.40.78×
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert30.0%$5.08 7.81 gems4.3%1,1761205.70.98×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified30.0%$4.18 6.43 gems3.5%1,2661205.71.05×
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade30.0%$0.01 0.02 gems0.0%1,1801205.70.98×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$39.5760.88 gems$6,2919,679 gems159.0x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$39.5760.88 gems$6,2919,679 gems159.0x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPOTATO$39.5760.88 gems$6,2919,679 gems159.0x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSponge$39.5760.88 gems$1,6132,482 gems40.76x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.5760.88 gems$1,6132,482 gems40.76x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.5760.88 gems$1,6132,482 gems40.76x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$39.5760.88 gems$1,2021,849 gems30.37x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$39.5760.88 gems$1,2021,849 gems30.37x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$39.5760.88 gems$1,2021,849 gems30.37x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$39.5760.88 gems$1,2021,849 gems30.37x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$39.5760.88 gems$55.2585 gems1.40x
Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$39.5760.88 gems$4.186.43 gems0.11x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$39.5760.88 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertzyro$39.5760.88 gems$5.087.81 gems0.13x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$39.5760.88 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$39.5760.88 gems$5.087.81 gems0.13x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$39.5760.88 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$39.5760.88 gems$5.087.81 gems0.13x
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$39.5760.88 gems$5.087.81 gems0.13x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Gradezyro$39.5760.88 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$39.5789.99%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 33.6%classified 31.6%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 2.5%Ancient 1.0%red 1.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit $6,291 (159.0x)