Oni Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.04
92.37 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.04 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.19%
224 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 230 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $598 920 gems | 22.1% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $444 684 gems | 16.4% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $357 550 gems | 13.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $284 437 gems | 10.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $182 280 gems | 6.7% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $39.46 60.71 gems | 7.3% | 27 | 23.0 | 1.17× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $31.01 47.7 gems | 11.5% | 48 | 46.0 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $20.03 30.82 gems | 7.4% | 47 | 46.0 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $8.47 13.03 gems | 3.1% | 49 | 46.0 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6 | 20.0% | $4.36 6.7 gems | 1.6% | 40 | 46.0 | 0.87× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $60.04 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 60.0%classified 20.0%#d32ce6 20.0%best hit $598 (9.96x)