Onslaught

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$32.60

50.15 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $29.33 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.65%

4,300 openings, odds method

Variance

58.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 167

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

481 openings · below min

7 days

99.23%±25.683,434 openings

30 days

102.65%±22.954,300 openings

since tracking started

102.65%±22.954,300 openings

-0.5%67.3%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	481	65.52%±68.6	—	odds
7d	3,434	99.23%±25.7	+0.7σ	odds
30d	4,300	102.65%±22.9	+1.1σ	odds
All	4,300	102.65%±22.9	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,401 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$4,254 6,545 gems	43.5%	17	13.2	1.29×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$1,220 1,877 gems	12.5%	14	13.2	1.06×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$835 1,285 gems	11.4%	23	17.6	1.31×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$518 796 gems	8.8%	15	22.0	0.68×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$264 405 gems	4.5%	21	22.0	0.95×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$95.41 147 gems	6.5%	75	88.0	0.85×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$48.69 74.91 gems	3.3%	80	88.0	0.91×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$28.65 44.08 gems	2.0%	97	88.0	1.10×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$11.11 17.09 gems	2.7%	317	308.1	1.03×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	15.0%	$4.35 6.69 gems	2.2%	668	660.1	1.01×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	30.0%	$1.94 2.98 gems	2.0%	1,299	1320.3	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	40.0%	$0.49 0.76 gems	0.7%	1,775	1760.4	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x20h

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x1d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableDartt$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x2d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x3d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x5d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableone of wun$32.6050.15 gems$4,2546,545 gems130.5x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$32.6050.15 gems$4.356.69 gems0.13x7m

★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$32.6050.15 gems$518796 gems15.88x7m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$32.6050.15 gems$0.490.76 gems0.02x7m

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$32.6050.15 gems$1.942.98 gems0.06x7m

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$32.6050.15 gems$1.942.98 gems0.06x7m

SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$32.6050.15 gems$4.356.69 gems0.13x12m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$32.6050.15 gems$0.490.76 gems0.02x12m

SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$32.6050.15 gems$4.356.69 gems0.13x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$32.60	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.3%covert 1.2%mil spec 0.5%extraordinary 2.0%classified 11.0%pink 15.0%violet 30.0%#4b69ff 40.0%best hit $4,254 (130.5x)