Operation Breakout Weapon Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.89
5.98 gems
Advertised RTP
89.90%
EV $3.49 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.86%
21.4K openings, odds method
Variance
266.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 833
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.89 | 89.90% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert 0.8%gold 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 3.2%mil spec 32.0%restricted 8.0%Mythical 8.0%Rare 32.0%Mil Spec 16.0%best hit $2,920 (751.2x)