Operation Broken Fang Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.24
8.06 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $4.71 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.49%
6,456 openings, odds method
Variance
115.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 204
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,502 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5.248.06 gems$1,7232,651 gems328.9x
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryEvander$5.248.06 gems$1,4592,244 gems278.5x
★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendaryAnonymous763873$5.248.06 gems$578890 gems110.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $5.24 | 89.96% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 11.4%extraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.1%covert 0.6%Extraordinary 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 6.4%Mythical 3.2%#8847ff 6.4%blue 22.8%Mil Spec 11.4%Rare 22.8%Mil Spec Grade 11.4%best hit $1,723 (328.9x)