Operation Hydra Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.72

24.19 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $14.15 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

111.39%

2,357 openings, odds method

Variance

255.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 182

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

303 openings · below min

7 days

122.27%±70.231,993 openings

30 days

111.39%±64.582,357 openings

since tracking started

111.39%±64.582,357 openings

-0.5%116.8%234.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	303	53.33%±180.1	—	odds
7d	1,993	122.27%±70.2	+0.9σ	odds
30d	2,357	111.39%±64.6	+0.6σ	odds
All	2,357	111.39%±64.6	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,429 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$17.6K 27,095 gems	12.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$8,651 13,310 gems	6.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$8,441 12,986 gems	6.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$7,756 11,933 gems	5.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$7,300 11,231 gems	5.2%	3	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$6,570 10,108 gems	4.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$3,055 4,701 gems	2.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,494 2,298 gems	1.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,311 2,017 gems	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,234 1,898 gems	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$984 1,513 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$741 1,140 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 10,000	$593 913 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$519 799 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$511 786 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$493 758 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$465 716 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$415 639 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$395 608 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$394 606 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$376 579 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$360 554 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$319 491 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$262 403 gems	5.9%	10	7.8	1.29×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$228 351 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$51.69 79.52 gems	1.2%	10	7.8	1.29×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$36.63 56.35 gems	2.8%	22	25.9	0.85×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$32.89 50.6 gems	2.5%	29	25.9	1.12×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$30.05 46.23 gems	2.3%	26	25.9	1.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$16.75 25.77 gems	13.5%	267	277.3	0.96×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$15.00 23.07 gems	3.4%	71	77.6	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$5.80 8.93 gems	4.7%	277	277.3	1.00×
P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$5.67 8.73 gems	1.3%	70	77.6	0.90×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$5.44 8.37 gems	1.2%	86	77.6	1.11×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$5.07 7.8 gems	1.1%	87	77.6	1.12×
P90 \| Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$4.97 7.65 gems	1.1%	78	77.6	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	11.4%	$4.89 7.52 gems	3.9%	272	277.3	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$1.74 2.68 gems	1.4%	264	277.3	0.95×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$1.73 2.66 gems	1.4%	272	277.3	0.98×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspec	11.4%	$1.70 2.62 gems	1.4%	256	277.3	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	11.4%	$1.61 2.48 gems	1.3%	327	277.9	1.18×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$15.7224.19 gems$7,30011,231 gems464.3x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$15.7224.19 gems$7,30011,231 gems464.3x4d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarySlyckety$15.7224.19 gems$7,30011,231 gems464.3x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$12K LB Wasted.bet$15.7224.19 gems$1,4942,298 gems95.00x4d

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary$15.7224.19 gems$519799 gems33.03x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$15.7224.19 gems$16.7525.77 gems1.07x4h

M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$15.7224.19 gems$5.808.93 gems0.37x4h

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$15.7224.19 gems$1.612.48 gems0.10x4h

FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspec$15.7224.19 gems$1.702.62 gems0.11x4h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedsuper tomato$15.7224.19 gems$15.0023.07 gems0.95x4h

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$15.7224.19 gems$1.612.48 gems0.10x4h

M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$15.7224.19 gems$5.808.93 gems0.37x4h

FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspec$15.7224.19 gems$1.702.62 gems0.11x4h

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$15.7224.19 gems$1.612.48 gems0.10x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$15.72	90.00%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%legendary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%covert 0.6%classified 3.2%mil spec 45.7%restricted 16.0%#4b69ff 22.9%milspec 11.4%best hit $7,300 (464.3x)