Operation Riptide Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.71
5.71 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $3.34 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.20%
3,757 openings, odds method
Variance
76.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,869 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$3.715.71 gems$1,3322,050 gems358.9x
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldYuanPi$3.715.71 gems$7931,221 gems213.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.71 | 89.94% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 11.4%covert 0.7%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%sunny 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 9.6%violet 3.2%mil spec 34.3%Mythical 3.2%Mil Spec Grade 22.9%Mil Spec 11.4%best hit $1,332 (358.9x)