Operation Wildfire Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.43
5.27 gems
Advertised RTP
89.87%
EV $3.08 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.20%
7,575 openings, odds method
Variance
40.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 61
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,667 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.43 | 89.87% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%mil spec 40.0%Mil Spec Grade 13.3%#4b69ff 26.6%best hit $474 (138.5x)