Operationally Challenged
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.19
6.45 gems
Advertised RTP
89.88%
EV $3.77 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.81%
4,213 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,332 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedjussin pinkki$4.196.45 gems$15.9624.55 gems3.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $4.19 | 89.88% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%classified 5.5%restricted 33.0%violet 25.0%mil spec 34.0%best hit $262 (62.38x)