Opperator
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.77
2.72 gems
Advertised RTP
89.83%
EV $1.59 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.55%
10.5K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Bloody Miami Darryl | The Professionalsagent · master | 1 in 100 | $30.45 46.85 gems | 19.2% | 109 | 106.6 | 1.02× |
| Number K | The Professionalsagent · superior | 1 in 100 | $16.78 25.82 gems | 10.6% | 108 | 106.6 | 1.01× |
| Sir Bloody Darryl Royale | The Professionalsagent · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $11.70 18 gems | 7.4% | 106 | 106.6 | 0.99× |
| Vypa Sista of the Revolution | Guerrilla Warfareagent · red | 1 in 100 | $8.70 13.38 gems | 5.5% | 113 | 106.6 | 1.06× |
| Elite Trapper Solman | Guerrilla Warfareagent · pink | 1 in 100 | $6.21 9.55 gems | 3.9% | 86 | 106.6 | 0.81× |
| Safecracker Voltzmann | The Professionalsagent · pink | 1 in 100 | $5.14 7.9 gems | 3.2% | 111 | 106.6 | 1.04× |
| Col. Mangos Dabisi | Guerrilla Warfareagent · violet | 1 in 100 | $4.18 6.43 gems | 2.6% | 116 | 106.6 | 1.09× |
| Street Soldier | Phoenixagent · distinguished | 1 in 100 | $2.90 4.46 gems | 1.8% | 97 | 106.6 | 0.91× |
| 'The Doctor' Romanov | Sabreagent · red | 1 in 100 | $2.38 3.66 gems | 1.5% | 110 | 106.6 | 1.03× |
| Blackwolf | Sabreagent · pink | 91.0% | $0.77 1.19 gems | 44.3% | 9,704 | 9700.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.77 | 89.83% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmaster 1.0%superior 1.0%Ancient 1.0%red 2.0%pink 93.0%violet 1.0%distinguished 1.0%best hit —