Osiris
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$517.41
796 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $465.67 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.42%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 20.0% | $1,395 2,146 gems | 59.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 20.0% | $911 1,401 gems | 39.1% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $8.11 12.48 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| AWP | Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $6.82 10.49 gems | 0.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $517 | 90.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 20.0%exotic 20.0%classified 30.0%#4b69ff 30.0%best hit $1,395 (2.70x)