Osmosis
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.95
115 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $67.45 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.76%
263 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 267 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $592 910 gems | 43.8% | 15 | 13.3 | 1.12× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $319 490 gems | 23.6% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Team Liquid (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $187 288 gems | 13.9% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $58.83 90.5 gems | 4.4% | 9 | 13.3 | 0.67× |
| Sticker | waterfaLLZ (Gold) | London 2018sticker | 1 in 20 | $41.09 63.21 gems | 3.0% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.82× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $25.67 39.49 gems | 5.7% | 44 | 40.0 | 1.10× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $15.98 24.59 gems | 3.6% | 42 | 40.0 | 1.05× |
| Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $6.81 10.47 gems | 1.5% | 43 | 40.0 | 1.07× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $1.79 2.76 gems | 0.4% | 39 | 40.0 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.40 0.62 gems | 0.1% | 40 | 40.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertSmiling Grizzly$74.95115 gems$592910 gems7.89x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$74.95115 gems$25.6739.49 gems0.34x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$74.95115 gems$25.6739.49 gems0.34x
MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil specFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$74.95115 gems$0.400.62 gems0.01x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$74.95115 gems$25.6739.49 gems0.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.95 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%Legendary 20.0%classified 5.0%other 5.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit $592 (7.89x)