Out for Blood
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,194.03
1,837 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,074.61 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.95%
126 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary | 1 in 20 | $14.2K 21,800 gems | 65.9% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 20 | $3,249 4,999 gems | 15.1% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 20 | $1,933 2,975 gems | 9.0% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 20 | $845 1,300 gems | 3.9% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 25.0% | $198 305 gems | 4.6% | 37 | 31.5 | 1.17× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $56.47 86.87 gems | 1.3% | 31 | 31.5 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $3.53 5.43 gems | 0.1% | 40 | 37.8 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,1941,837 gems$14.2K21,800 gems11.87x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,1941,837 gems$14.2K21,800 gems11.87x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,1941,837 gems$14.2K21,800 gems11.87x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryMochi$1,1941,837 gems$1,9332,975 gems1.62x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1,1941,837 gems$198305 gems0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,194 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 15.0%knifes 5.0%covert 25.0%mil spec 25.0%Rare 30.0%best hit $14.2K (11.87x)