Overdraft Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$879.47
1,353 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $791.52 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.79%
597 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 603 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $25.3K 38,986 gems | 32.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $9,230 14,200 gems | 23.3% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.08× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 50 | $4,874 7,499 gems | 12.3% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.75× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $3,100 4,769 gems | 19.6% | 26 | 30.2 | 0.86× |
| ★ Karambit | Vanillaknife | 10.0% | $657 1,010 gems | 8.3% | 58 | 60.3 | 0.96× |
| Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base | 80.0% | $44.19 67.99 gems | 4.5% | 489 | 482.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendaryChuck$8791,353 gems$25.3K38,986 gems28.81x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendaryMochi$8791,353 gems$25.3K38,986 gems28.81x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$8791,353 gems$9,23014,200 gems10.49x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$8791,353 gems$9,23014,200 gems10.49x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $879 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%contraband 2.0%covert 7.0%other 10.0%base 80.0%best hit $25.3K (28.81x)