Pandemic
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.92
56.8 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $33.22 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.05%
374 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 392 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $175 270 gems | 79.2% | 63 | 58.8 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $37.72 58.03 gems | 17.0% | 61 | 58.8 | 1.04× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $4.34 6.68 gems | 1.3% | 41 | 39.2 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $3.28 5.05 gems | 1.0% | 40 | 39.2 | 1.02× |
| Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $3.19 4.9 gems | 1.0% | 28 | 39.2 | 0.71× |
| XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 0.3% | 84 | 78.4 | 1.07× |
| FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.2% | 75 | 78.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$36.9256.8 gems$37.7258.03 gems1.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $36.92 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%classified 25.0%violet 30.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit —