Pandoras Box
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.16
35.63 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $20.84 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.57%
621 openings, odds method
Variance
27.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 621 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $3,807 5,857 gems | 18.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 10 | $68.39 105 gems | 32.5% | 78 | 61.5 | 1.27× |
| USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $40.38 62.12 gems | 19.4% | 50 | 62.1 | 0.81× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $25.70 39.54 gems | 24.7% | 111 | 124.2 | 0.89× |
| Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $3.50 5.39 gems | 3.4% | 116 | 124.2 | 0.93× |
| G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $1.22 1.88 gems | 1.2% | 132 | 124.2 | 1.06× |
| AUG | Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $0.70 1.08 gems | 0.7% | 134 | 124.2 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.16 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 9.9%classified 10.0%restricted 20.0%#4b69ff 20.0%Mythical 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%best hit —