Paper Hands
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$94.08
145 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $84.67 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.04%
160 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 160 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $660 1,015 gems | 19.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| AWP | LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 13 | $300 462 gems | 26.6% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $160 246 gems | 18.9% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $122 188 gems | 14.4% | 11 | 16.0 | 0.69× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $66.30 102 gems | 7.8% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $51.77 79.64 gems | 6.1% | 19 | 16.0 | 1.19× |
| MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $33.42 51.42 gems | 3.9% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.88× |
| MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $14.62 22.49 gems | 1.7% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.72 10.34 gems | 0.8% | 19 | 16.0 | 1.19× |
| P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 0.2% | 32 | 32.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$94.08145 gems$6601,015 gems7.01x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$94.08145 gems$6601,015 gems7.01x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertYikers **********.com$94.08145 gems$6601,015 gems7.01x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$94.08145 gems$6601,015 gems7.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $94.08 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.5%red 7.5%#eb4b4b 10.0%Classified 10.0%Legendary 10.0%rare 10.0%classified 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%best hit $660 (7.01x)