Para
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.88
58.27 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.09 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.49%
538 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 544 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 125 | $824 1,268 gems | 19.3% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 100 | $262 403 gems | 7.7% | 10 | 5.4 | 1.84× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 50 | $224 344 gems | 13.1% | 6 | 10.9 | 0.55× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 40 | $172 265 gems | 12.6% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Vanillaknife | 1 in 33 | $101 156 gems | 8.9% | 13 | 16.3 | 0.80× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $74.75 115 gems | 11.0% | 33 | 27.2 | 1.21× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 18 | $70.69 109 gems | 11.8% | 27 | 31.0 | 0.87× |
| USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $13.83 21.28 gems | 12.2% | 154 | 163.2 | 0.94× |
| SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 50.0% | $2.27 3.49 gems | 3.3% | 284 | 272.0 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $37.88 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedImmortal 0.8%#ffd700 1.0%epic 2.0%rare 2.5%other 3.0%covert knife 10.7%industrial 30.0%#8847ff 50.0%best hit $824 (21.76x)