Paradox Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$72.46

111 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $65.21 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.26%

548 openings, odds method

Variance

6.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70 openings · below min

7 days

77.70%±22.82449 openings

30 days

72.26%±20.66548 openings

since tracking started

72.26%±20.66548 openings

-0.5%56.0%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	70	54.05%±57.8	—	odds
7d	449	77.70%±22.8	−1.1σ	odds
30d	548	72.26%±20.7	−1.7σ	odds
All	548	72.26%±20.7	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 548 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,533 2,359 gems	23.5%	2	5.5	0.36×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$631 970 gems	14.5%	7	8.2	0.85×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 40	$403 620 gems	15.5%	12	13.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 20	$193 297 gems	14.8%	26	27.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$81.00 125 gems	6.2%	26	27.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$43.02 66.19 gems	9.9%	86	82.2	1.05×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$30.54 46.99 gems	7.0%	73	82.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$15.96 24.56 gems	6.1%	153	137.0	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	30.0%	$5.36 8.25 gems	2.5%	163	164.4	0.99×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covertSponge$72.46111 gems$1,5332,359 gems21.16x3d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$1,5332,359 gems21.16x5d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertMpiXelss$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x2d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertReaser$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x6d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$631970 gems8.70x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$72.46111 gems$15.9624.56 gems0.22x14m

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · MythicalDaxo$72.46111 gems$5.368.25 gems0.07x14m

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$72.46111 gems$5.368.25 gems0.07x2h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$72.46111 gems$15.9624.56 gems0.22x2h

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$72.46111 gems$43.0266.19 gems0.59x2h

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$72.46111 gems$193297 gems2.67x2h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$72.46111 gems$15.9624.56 gems0.22x2h

SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$72.46111 gems$30.5446.99 gems0.42x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$72.46	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.5%legendary 2.5%Ancient 5.0%classified 45.0%Mythical 30.0%best hit $1,533 (21.16x)