Patch Work
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.08
3.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $1.87 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.72%
14.9K openings, odds method
Variance
47.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patch | Bayonet Frogpatch · exotic | 1 in 1,000 | $425 654 gems | 22.8% | 13 | 15.1 | 0.86× |
| Patch | Elder Godpatch · exotic | 1 in 1,000 | $95.19 146 gems | 5.1% | 17 | 15.1 | 1.13× |
| Patch | Dead Menpatch · remarkable | 1 in 400 | $58.68 90.27 gems | 7.8% | 31 | 37.7 | 0.82× |
| Patch | Metal Silver Demonpatch · Exotic | 1 in 133 | $21.54 33.14 gems | 8.6% | 109 | 113.0 | 0.96× |
| Patch | Sunset Wavepatch · remarkable | 1 in 125 | $15.87 24.42 gems | 6.8% | 102 | 120.5 | 0.85× |
| Patch | The Bosspatch · exotic | 1 in 100 | $12.25 18.84 gems | 6.6% | 157 | 150.6 | 1.04× |
| Patch | Howlpatch · exotic | 1 in 100 | $8.88 13.66 gems | 4.8% | 146 | 150.6 | 0.97× |
| Patch | Cruising Raypatch · Rare | 1 in 33 | $4.30 6.62 gems | 6.9% | 443 | 451.8 | 0.98× |
| Patch | Mad Sushipatch · #4B69FF | 1 in 33 | $2.89 4.45 gems | 4.6% | 457 | 451.8 | 1.01× |
| Patch | Lambdapatch · remarkable | 10.0% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 8.0% | 1,508 | 1506.1 | 1.00× |
| Patch | Chicken Loverpatch · Remarkable | 30.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 12.3% | 4,627 | 4518.3 | 1.02× |
| Patch | Headcrab Glyphpatch · Rare | 50.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 5.7% | 7,451 | 7530.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.08 | 89.85% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 2.2%remarkable 11.1%Exotic 0.8%Rare 53.0%#4B69FF 3.0%Remarkable 30.0%best hit $425 (204.4x)