Pawn Shop
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.93
16.81 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $9.83 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.43%
1,250 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,250 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 1,000 | $482 741 gems | 4.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 200 | $274 421 gems | 13.9% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $124 191 gems | 12.6% | 9 | 12.5 | 0.72× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 33 | $35.99 55.37 gems | 11.0% | 41 | 37.5 | 1.09× |
| USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $17.03 26.2 gems | 8.7% | 55 | 62.5 | 0.88× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $11.81 18.17 gems | 6.0% | 65 | 62.5 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Antique (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $8.29 12.75 gems | 6.7% | 108 | 98.8 | 1.09× |
| Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $5.73 8.81 gems | 5.8% | 118 | 125.0 | 0.94× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $4.83 7.43 gems | 6.1% | 148 | 156.3 | 0.95× |
| Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $4.41 6.78 gems | 11.2% | 309 | 312.5 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $4.28 6.59 gems | 13.1% | 393 | 375.0 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.93 | 89.98% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%exotic 0.5%covert 31.0%#8847ff 3.0%mil spec 15.0%classified 37.9%restricted 12.5%best hit —