Payday Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$34.00
52.31 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $30.60 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.77%
2,656 openings, odds method
Variance
14.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,685 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,328 2,043 gems | 21.7% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $656 1,009 gems | 21.4% | 28 | 26.9 | 1.04× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 67 | $428 658 gems | 21.0% | 40 | 40.3 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $263 404 gems | 17.2% | 58 | 53.7 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $88.40 136 gems | 14.4% | 126 | 134.3 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.80 4.31 gems | 1.8% | 530 | 537.0 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $1.31 2.02 gems | 0.9% | 540 | 537.0 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $1.16 1.78 gems | 0.8% | 552 | 537.0 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 30.0% | $0.86 1.33 gems | 0.8% | 798 | 805.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$34.0052.31 gems$428658 gems12.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.00 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%legendary 1.0%Mythical 5.0%classified 40.0%#d32ee6 20.0%Legendary 30.0%best hit $1,328 (39.06x)