Peak Performance
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.96
44.56 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.06 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.26%
199 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 223 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $156 241 gems | 30.0% | 12 | 11.2 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $110 170 gems | 21.2% | 7 | 11.2 | 0.63× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $78.15 120 gems | 15.0% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.81× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Minimal Wear)gloves · gold | 1 in 20 | $45.71 70.32 gems | 8.8% | 7 | 11.2 | 0.63× |
| M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $22.15 34.08 gems | 8.5% | 22 | 22.3 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $10.68 16.43 gems | 8.2% | 45 | 44.6 | 1.01× |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 25.0% | $5.62 8.65 gems | 5.4% | 59 | 55.8 | 1.06× |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6 | 25.0% | $3.11 4.79 gems | 3.0% | 62 | 55.8 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedUwUcrusader$28.9644.56 gems$22.1534.08 gems0.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.96 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 35.0%gold 5.0%Mythical 25.0%#d32ce6 25.0%best hit —