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Peeled

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$31.77
48.87 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.58 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.83%
3,003 openings, odds method
Variance
37.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
375 openings · below min
7 days
76.01%±23.612,600 openings
30 days
72.83%±21.973,003 openings
since tracking started
72.83%±21.973,003 openings
33.0%96.0%159.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h37596.01%±62.2—odds
7d2,60076.01%±23.6−1.2σodds
30d3,00372.83%±22.0−1.5σodds
All3,00372.83%±22.0−1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,025 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 500$3,802 5,850 gems26.6%26.00.33×
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$1,334 2,052 gems14.0%89.10.88×
★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$701 1,078 gems12.3%1715.11.12×
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 100$343 527 gems12.0%2630.30.86×
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$187 288 gems13.1%5960.50.98×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$79.43 122 gems8.3%10390.81.13×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33$49.95 76.85 gems5.2%8190.80.89×
MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$21.61 33.24 gems3.8%147151.30.97×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$10.97 16.87 gems1.9%150151.30.99×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted10.0%$5.08 7.81 gems1.8%313302.51.03×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted10.0%$2.05 3.15 gems0.7%294302.50.97×
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial60.0%$0.13 0.2 gems0.3%1,8251815.01.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$31.7748.87 gems$3,8025,850 gems119.7x
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$31.7748.87 gems$3,8025,850 gems119.7x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$1,3342,052 gems42.00x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x
MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil specMoncler$31.7748.87 gems$21.6133.24 gems0.68x
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$31.7748.87 gems$2.053.15 gems0.06x
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$31.7748.87 gems$10.9716.87 gems0.35x
★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$31.7748.87 gems$7011,078 gems22.07x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrialMoncler$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrialMoncler$31.7748.87 gems$0.130.2 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$31.7789.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%extraordinary 0.8%rare 1.0%classified 5.0%covert 3.0%mil spec 5.0%#8847ff 5.0%restricted 20.0%industrial 60.0%best hit $3,802 (119.7x)