Penalty Shootout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$91.90
141 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $82.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.67%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $956 1,470 gems | 11.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 1 in 50 | $679 1,045 gems | 16.4% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $511 786 gems | 12.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $288 443 gems | 17.4% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.45× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Minimal Wear)gloves · rare | 1 in 20 | $213 327 gems | 12.9% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic | 1 in 20 | $155 238 gems | 9.4% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $96.20 148 gems | 5.8% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $56.11 86.33 gems | 3.4% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $16.63 25.58 gems | 6.0% | 49 | 45.6 | 1.07× |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $9.95 15.31 gems | 4.8% | 64 | 60.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryArmands Miesnieks$91.90141 gems$511786 gems5.56x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedfarlopero peek$91.90141 gems$9.9515.31 gems0.11x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedArmands Miesnieks$91.90141 gems$9.9515.31 gems0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $91.90 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 18.0%sunny 2.0%rare 5.0%epic 5.0%restricted 70.0%best hit $679 (7.39x)