Penniless
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.00
6.16 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $3.60 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.43%
11.8K openings, odds method
Variance
37.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 625 | $543 836 gems | 24.2% | 19 | 19.5 | 0.97× |
| ★ Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scared)knife | 1 in 294 | $147 226 gems | 13.9% | 38 | 41.4 | 0.92× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $80.43 124 gems | 11.2% | 58 | 60.9 | 0.95× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $51.27 78.88 gems | 14.2% | 120 | 121.8 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $17.53 26.97 gems | 14.6% | 393 | 365.5 | 1.08× |
| Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $8.58 13.2 gems | 11.9% | 636 | 609.2 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $3.41 5.24 gems | 9.5% | 1,201 | 1218.4 | 0.99× |
| MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 80.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.6% | 9,719 | 9747.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.00 | 89.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%other 0.3%gold 0.5%mil spec 3.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%Consumer Grade 80.0%best hit $543 (135.7x)