Penny Pincher
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.83
2.82 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $1.65 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.24%
9,169 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,287 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 100 | $23.77 36.57 gems | 14.4% | 87 | 92.9 | 0.94× |
| P90 | Baroque Red (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $11.17 17.18 gems | 6.8% | 78 | 92.9 | 0.84× |
| Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 100 | $7.23 11.12 gems | 4.4% | 90 | 92.9 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $6.70 10.31 gems | 4.1% | 96 | 92.9 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $4.75 7.3 gems | 17.3% | 587 | 557.2 | 1.05× |
| MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $4.41 6.78 gems | 26.7% | 913 | 928.7 | 0.98× |
| MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $2.12 3.26 gems | 25.7% | 1,887 | 1857.4 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 60.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.7% | 5,549 | 5572.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.83 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 1.0%mil spec 21.0%blue 1.0%restricted 1.0%classified 6.0%industrial 10.0%consumer 60.0%best hit —